The Champions League is the most desired trophy in European soccer, and this year, Atlético de Madrid has completed a brilliant group stage. However, despite their great initial performance, statistical predictions give them minimal chances of winning the title. According to an Opta supercomputer, the red-and-white team's chances of winning the competition are just 3%, a figure that leaves them far from the main favorites.
Liverpool, Arsenal, and Inter Milan lead the predictions, while teams like Real Madrid, PSG, and Bayern Munich also have better chances than Diego Simeone's team. But does Atlético de Madrid really have such slim chances?
A Brilliant Performance, but No Confidence in the Data
Atlético de Madrid has shown in the group stage that they are a competitive and solid team. They have been able to prevail in a tough group and have shown a very high level of play. However, the prediction algorithms seem not to trust that the team can maintain that level in the knockout rounds.
The main reasons why Atlético de Madrid's odds are so low may be due to the difficulty of the matchups. History in the Champions, despite having reached two finals in the last decade, Atlético de Madrid has never managed to win the Champions League. Finally, dependence on key players.
Can Atlético de Madrid Defy the Statistics?
While the numbers seem to be against them, there are factors that could allow Atlético de Madrid to break the predictions and fight for the Champions League. One of them is the experience in knockouts, as Simeone and his team have proven to be extremely competitive in the elimination rounds.
Another key factor to consider is defensive strength. They are the least scored-against team in LaLiga, and this year they have regained the solidity that had been lost in recent seasons. Finally, Atlético's ability to compete with the big teams, having already eliminated teams like Liverpool and Bayern Munich in the past.